Nigeria’s fuel subsidy bill could have hit ₦53 trillion this year had President Bola Tinubu not scrapped it in 2023, NRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji said Sunday.

Adedeji told Channels Television that retaining the subsidy would have imposed a much heavier strain on government finances, citing pressure in the global energy market and the crisis in Iran as key drivers of the estimate.

“The subsidy today will have been N53 trillion,” Adedeji said, adding, “The naira would have taken a matching hit.”

Adedeji estimated that the exchange rate would have deteriorated to roughly ₦3,500 to the dollar had the reforms not gone ahead.

“If Mr. President had not stopped it, only God knows where this country will have been,” he said, referring to the subsidy removal.

Adedeji rejected the argument that government should have built up reserves before pulling the subsidy. He maintained that subsidy payments amounted to an expenditure rather than a source of revenue, comparing it to borrowing money to buy a product only to resell it at a loss.

He tied the subsidy removal to gains elsewhere in the energy sector.

Adedeji argued that ending the subsidy created incentives for private investment in domestic refining and reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, pointing to what he described as a significant expansion in the country’s domestic refining capacity since 2023.

He used the appearance to challenge potential 2027 presidential contenders. Adedeji asked whether critics believed removing the fuel subsidy or unifying the exchange rate had been the wrong call, and said the president deserved “support and commendation” rather than political opposition.

Details on the specific oil-price benchmark used to calculate the ₦53 trillion figure remain unclear.