Bamidele Atoyebi, convenor of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Ideological Group, has submitted that northern Nigeria risks losing political goodwill with the South if it fails to support President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.

Atoyebi, who is also the National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring, said the 2027 presidential election would test the North’s reliability as a political ally and determine whether it could reciprocate the support Tinubu gave former President Muhammadu Buhari in previous elections.

In a statement titled ‘Why the North Is Obligated to Deliver President Tinubu for Second Term’, Atoyebi recalled Tinubu’s role in helping Buhari secure the presidency in 2015 and his subsequent re-election in 2019.

He argued that Tinubu’s political machinery and support in the South-West contributed significantly to Buhari’s electoral victories after the former president had unsuccessfully contested the presidency three times.

According to Atoyebi, the North’s voting pattern in the 2023 presidential election raised questions about the region’s willingness to support its political allies, particularly given the votes secured by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar against Tinubu.

He cited the 1,741,846 votes Atiku received across the North-East and the 2,329,540 votes he secured in the North-West, arguing that the figures raised concerns among some political observers about the strength of political reciprocity between the North and South.

Atoyebi acknowledged that some northern voters might have preferred a candidate from their region, while others expected Buhari to openly support his party’s presidential candidate.

However, he maintained that the political relationship between Tinubu and Buhari made northern support for Tinubu a matter of reciprocity.

He said the 2027 election would provide an opportunity to determine whether the North could be trusted to stand by its political alliances, warning that a repeat of Atiku’s 2023 performance in the region could strain relations between northern and southern political stakeholders.

According to him, such an outcome could encourage political actors in the South to consolidate their support around a southern presidential candidate, alongside the North-Central region, potentially complicating northern political ambitions in the 2031 election.

Atoyebi also argued that the South-West had historically played an influential role in shaping Nigeria’s presidential elections and suggested that political alignment between the South and North-Central could have significant implications for future contests.

Despite his concerns, he expressed confidence that northern political stakeholders would support Tinubu in 2027 rather than rally behind a northern candidate solely because of regional origin or party affiliation.

He maintained that political relationships depended on mutual support, stressing that the North’s approach to the 2027 election would shape how other regions assessed its credibility as an ally.