The African Democratic Congress, ADC, has dismissed a recent report by The Economist on President Bola Tinubu’s prospects in the 2027 presidential election, describing it as “poor journalism.”

The Economist had in its October 1 report titled “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway” projected that Tinubu could retain the presidency in 2027 despite public discontent over insecurity and economic hardship, citing incumbency advantage, access to ruling party structures, and fragmentation of the opposition.

Reacting to the report in an interview with Trust TV, the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, faulted the methodology and conclusions of the publication.

“I’m embarrassed the way we are elevating a mere story to the level of an electoral projection, and if this were a logic class, then we would be guilty of what is called argumentum ad veracundiam,” Abdullahi said.

He explained that the phrase refers to an appeal to authority, arguing that the publication of a report by The Economist did not automatically make its conclusions credible.

“I read that story, and I think even as a piece of journalism it’s poor journalism. The fact that it’s published by The Economist does not excuse the fact that it is poor journalism,” he said.

Abdullahi questioned the methodology behind the report, claiming that it relied on limited interviews conducted in Borno State and could not be used to draw conclusions about the entire country.

“When you sit in one place in Borno, and probably Borno town, just the town, then you spoke to a couple of people and used that to extrapolate for the entire country, that’s not journalism,” he said.

Abdullahi, a former newspaper editor, said he would have rejected a similar report had it been submitted to him during his time as an editor.

“That’s not the way we do this work. And like I said on a different TV platform yesterday, if a reporter brought that to me as an editor, when I was at ThisDay newspaper, I would throw it back at him and say it’s lazy reporting,” he said.

The reaction comes days after the ADC Presidential Campaign Council also rejected the forecast.

In a statement titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku,” the Director of Strategic Communication of the council, Phrank Shaibu, said electoral forecasts cannot determine how Nigerians will vote.

“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” Shaibu said.

He said Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families, and argued that the low turnout in 2023 should not be interpreted as support for the incumbent.