S&P Global Ratings has officially upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings from “B-” to “B”, maintaining a stable outlook for the country.

The international rating agency attributed the upgrade to three years of sustained macroeconomic adjustments and structural reforms initiated under the current administration, notably the liberalisation of the foreign exchange (FX) market in 2023.

According to S&P, the policy changes have significantly restored investor confidence, bolstered access to foreign currency, and created a market-driven exchange-rate environment that is actively supporting non-oil GDP growth.

A critical driver of the improved credit profile is the notable expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity, spearheaded by the scaling up of the Dangote refinery toward its maximum 650,000 barrels per day output.

This development, combined with improved security conditions in the Niger Delta that have curbed oil theft and boosted crude production to an estimated 1.66 million barrels per day, has significantly strengthened Nigeria’s external position.

S&P expects the nation’s current account surplus to rise to 5.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2025, offering a robust buffer against global economic shocks and supply chain disruptions.

On the fiscal side, S&P highlighted substantial progress in revenue centralisation and tax base expansion. The implementation of Presidential Executive Order 9, which mandates the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to transfer a greater share of petroleum revenues directly to the Federation Account, has noticeably enhanced government liquidity.

Consequently, Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio is projected to decline sharply to 33.8% in 2026, a significant drop from the 500% recorded in 2023. The agency also noted that the government’s firm stance against reintroducing inefficient fuel subsidies has successfully prevented wider budgetary deficits and preserved crucial foreign exchange liquidity.

Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele welcomed the upgrade, stating that it reinforces growing international confidence in Nigeria’s policy consistency and medium-term growth prospects.

He emphasized that this independent assessment by S&P, which follows similar positive rating actions by Fitch and Moody’s in 2025, serves as validation that the administration’s difficult but necessary reforms are yielding measurable results.

While the rating agency warned of persistent inflationary pressures driven by global oil market volatility, it projected that inflation will average 17.7% in 2026 before easing below 10% by 2028.