A public affairs analyst, Yaqub Olohuntoyin, has warned President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) against accepting a pledge that Kwara Central senatorial district can deliver one million votes in the 2027 general elections, describing the claim as unrealistic and unsupported by electoral data.

Olohuntoyin, in a statement, said the promise attributed to the Ilorin Emirate Political Advisory Council and Dr. Yakub Oloriegbe does not align with figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), arguing that Kwara Central does not have the voter strength required for such a projection.

He explained that Kwara Central comprising Asa, Ilorin East, Ilorin South and Ilorin West had 648,091 registered voters in the 2023 general elections, stressing that even a significant increase in voter registration would not bridge the gap needed to reach one million voters within the 2027 cycle.

“To reach one million registered voters from 648,091 within a short electoral cycle is not only unrealistic, it is mathematically impossible when compared with past voter registration trends in the state,” Olohuntoyin stated.

He further noted that voter turnout trends also weaken the feasibility of the projection, adding that Kwara Central recorded about 30 per cent turnout in 2023, consistent with the state average of 32.7 per cent, while Nigeria’s highest historical turnout since 1999 was 69.1 per cent in 2003.

According to him, even if the hypothetical one million registered voters were achieved, expecting full voter turnout and a flawless conversion into valid votes “has never happened in any Nigerian election and is not achievable under current electoral realities.”

Olohuntoyin also pointed to shifting voting patterns in Kwara State, noting that Kwara Central delivered 87,989 votes for the APC in the 2023 presidential election, representing about 33 per cent of the party’s total votes in the state, while its governorship votes dropped from 123,063 in 2019 to 90,804 in 2023.

He argued that Kwara South has remained more electorally consistent, citing its contribution to the APC’s victories in previous elections, and urged the party to prioritise realistic strongholds rather than inflated projections.

“The one million vote promise is a dangerous illusion that risks misleading the President and weakening strategic planning for 2027,” Olohuntoyin said. “Politics must be built on data, not imagination.”

He added that presenting inflated figures could distort planning within the APC and divert attention from genuine voter mobilisation efforts ahead of the 2027 elections.