Security and foreign policy experts have warned that Nigeria could face increased terrorist threats following a recent high-profile attack in Mali, urging stronger regional coordination and improved intelligence gathering across West Africa.

The warning follows a coordinated assault by jihadist groups in Mali last weekend that heightened concerns about the southward spread of extremist violence into Nigeria’s North West and North Central regions.

Analysts say the development underscores the growing capacity and collaboration among militant groups operating in the Sahel.

Experts who spoke in separate interviews said the attack could trigger a “domino effect,” with instability in one country encouraging similar operations in neighbouring states. They noted that Nigeria, already grappling with banditry and insurgent-linked attacks, remains vulnerable if proactive measures are not taken.

A research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Femi Otubanjo, said rising extremist activity in the region signals a broader pattern of expansion.

He stressed that success by militant groups in one country could embolden others across West Africa, warning that regional insecurity could worsen without coordinated responses.

Otubanjo also questioned the effectiveness of Nigeria’s current security strategy, noting that despite significant spending, tangible results remain limited. He called for stronger support for regional initiatives such as the Multinational Joint Task Force and urged greater involvement by the Economic Community of West African States in counterinsurgency efforts.

Similarly, the Director-General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Joseph Ochogwu, said while there is no immediate cause for panic, authorities must strengthen intelligence systems and reinforce security structures. He added that timely information-sharing and swift response mechanisms are critical to preventing attacks.

Ochogwu emphasised the role of citizens in national security, urging the public to report suspicious activities, while also calling for international support in areas such as satellite surveillance and precision operations.

On his part, Babatunde Ayeleru of the University of Ibadan warned that Nigeria’s current security challenges make it susceptible to external spillovers. He linked rising insecurity to regional fragmentation, particularly following the withdrawal of some Sahel countries from ECOWAS, which he said has weakened collective security frameworks.

Ayeleru cautioned that continued instability in the Sahel could disrupt trade, increase arms smuggling and affect food supply chains into Nigeria, urging authorities to reassess border policies with affected countries.

Foreign policy expert Femi Ojumu pointed to gaps between intelligence gathering and operational execution as a major challenge in Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts. He said while international partnerships are useful, the country must strengthen its internal security systems to better address emerging threats.

Meanwhile, political analyst Abdul-Gafar Oshodi noted that Nigeria is already experiencing similar patterns of violent attacks, citing recent incidents across several northern states. He said the frequency and scale of such attacks indicate that the threat is not hypothetical but ongoing.

Collectively, the experts called for a unified regional approach, improved intelligence coordination and sustained investment in security capabilities to prevent further escalation of violence across West Africa.