Kwara State, historically revered as the State of Harmony, currently finds itself at a critical political and social crossroads. At the heart of the discourse is the traditional power-sharing agreement among its three senatorial districts: Kwara Central, Kwara South, and Kwara North. For decades, a turn-by-turn unwritten but respected arrangement provided a sense of equity and stability, ensuring each region had a defined path of equity to the governorship. However, recent political shifts have disrupted this charter of equity, leading to a heated debate over whether the state’s foundational zoning logic has been permanently discarded or merely temporarily shunted aside.

The organized pattern of rotation was most visible during the transition from Abubakar Bukola Saraki, representing Kwara Central, to Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara South. This progression suggested that the next mantle of leadership would naturally transit to Kwara North. Yet, the 2019 “Otoge” movement, a populist uprising against the established political order saw the governorship return to Kwara Central under AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. While the movement was hailed as a liberation from a singular political dynasty, it inadvertently “snatched” the opportunity from the North, creating a sense of exclusion that now fuels current electoral tensions.

As the next election cycles approach, the throne is being contested by no fewer than eight heavyweights from all three districts. The resurgence of aspirants from Kwara Central has led many to question why the region continues to claim a right to the seat when other districts are yet to take their turn. Supporters of the incumbent argue that political power is earned through performance rather than birthright. They point to Governor AbdulRazaq’s achievements, specifically his record-breaking 35% women’s appointment quota and visible infrastructural improvements within the Ilorin metropolis, as justification for a continued Central mandate.

However, critics argue that the dominance of Kwara Central is partially due to the self-inflicted political fragmentation of Kwara South. Despite possessing a significant Yoruba population and the largest landmass in the state, the South has struggled to maintain a unified front. This lack of cohesion has allowed other regions to capitalize on their divisions, leading to what some describe as a “self-destruction” of their political arena. Without a consolidated voice, even the most populous and geographically significant district finds itself sidelined in the race for the Government House.

Beyond the power struggle, a darker cloud hangs over the state: a deteriorating security situation. Kwara was once considered a safe haven, insulated from the chaos of neighboring regions, but this reputation has suffered. Under the current watch, banditry and kidnappings have surged, rendering communities such as Ìgbómìnà, Ifelodun, Woro, Nuku, and Kemanji increasingly uninhabitable. Observers note a perceived lack of localized strategy in tackling these threats, suggesting that the administration often waits for external intervention rather than crafting indigenous solutions to problems eating deep into the security fabric of the state.

A significant point of contention is the credit for security successes like Operation Savannah Shield (OPSS). While the administration claims these efforts as wins, many observers attribute the success to a joint effort by the nation’s top military chiefs who happen to hail from Kwara, rather than a state-led initiative. This has fueled the narrative that the current leadership lacks the independent “brain power” to navigate complex security landscapes, relying instead on the influence of Kwarans in high federal positions to bail the state out of its crises.

One proposed solution to these administrative and security failures is the decentralization of large Local Government Areas (LGAs). Ifelodun LGA serves as a primary example; it is so vast that it shares borders with almost all 16 local governments in the state. Proponents of reform argue that breaking such massive territories into Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) would allow for tighter administration and better security monitoring. The failure to adopt this solution is seen by many as a missed opportunity to bring governance closer to the people in the state’s most vulnerable fringes.

The root cause of this burgeoning insecurity is increasingly linked to the state’s vast natural wealth. A common thread among the attacked communities is their high concentration of natural resources. Illegal mining has become the bedrock of instability, as armed groups move in to control these lucrative sites. Much more attention must be paid to the regulation of these mines and the enforcement of royalties from those with licenses. Until the government addresses the resource curse of illegal mining, the cycle of violence in the resource-rich North and South is unlikely to break.

The current political atmosphere suggests a growing appetite for a leader with a “clear identity”—one who understands the specific nuances of Kwara’s diverse geography. Residents in the North and South feel that their unique challenges, from vast unpoliced forests to mineral-driven conflict, require a governor who hails from those regions. There is a sense that a leader from the North or South would be more incentivized to fix the systemic issues of their home soil rather than focusing primarily on the urban development of the central metropolis.

Kwara State stands at a precipice where it must choose between continued central dominance and a return to regional equity. The demand for a North or South governorship is not just about sentiment; it is about the practical need for administrative reform and a localized response to insecurity. For Kwara to reclaim its pride of place as a State of Harmony, the next administration must be willing to address the illegal mining crisis and the administrative blunder of its local governments, ensuring that every district feels it has a stake in the state’s future.

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Bamidele Atoyebi is the Convener of BAT Ideological Group, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring and a publisher at Unfiltered and Mining Reporting