Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2025, marking one of the country’s strongest monthly outputs this year and signalling a gradual recovery in a sector long hindered by theft, sabotage, and infrastructure challenges.

The new figure reflects a modest but significant increase from October’s output and underscores improvements in security operations and technical optimisation across key production hubs in the Niger Delta. Officials say recent deployments of security personnel, improved surveillance of major trunk lines, and better cooperation with host communities have contributed to reducing pipeline breaches and restoring previously shut-in volumes. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has also intensified its monitoring and maintenance programmes, reopening several wells and boosting production efficiency with joint-venture partners. Industry sources indicate that additional barrels are expected to come online as new drilling campaigns progress. Despite the improvement, Nigeria remains slightly below its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota, a production ceiling the country has struggled to consistently meet due to chronic disruptions and underinvestment in the upstream sector. Energy analysts say the November rise is a welcome development, especially as OPEC+ prepares for a potentially tight market in early 2026, where compliance and stability among member states will be closely scrutinised. The production uptick is expected to provide a modest boost to government revenues, at a time when Nigeria is seeking to strengthen foreign exchange inflows and ease pressure on the naira. Economists note that sustained output above 1.4 million bpd could significantly support fiscal projections heading into the first quarter of 2026. However, experts warn that maintaining this trajectory will require consistent enforcement, timely infrastructure rehabilitation, and effective execution of reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). They emphasise that Nigeria’s long-term credibility within OPEC+ and the global market depends on predictable output and stronger asset protection. With the 1.436 million bpd recorded in November, Nigeria appears to be regaining momentum in its oil sector, but stakeholders say the real challenge lies in sustaining the gains and finally bridging the gap to its long-elusive OPEC benchmark.