Unraveling Surge in Terrorist Attacks
By Bamidele Atoyebi
The current state of national security is increasingly defined by sudden, violent spikes in terrorist activity that leave the public bewildered. For many experts who have critically analyzed the security architecture of the country, these are not random acts of chaos but rather calculated maneuvers. A troubling pattern has emerged where the intersection of political desperation and organized violence dictates the rhythm of national stability.
It is a sobering reality that many instances of insecurity appear to be strategically sponsored by political actors seeking to score “cheap political points”. As major election cycles approach, the frequency and brutality of these attacks often intensify to create a sense of crisis. This strategy is as barbaric as it is transparent: by sponsoring groups to kill, maim, and disrupt communities, opposition elements attempt to sway public opinion through fear.
The primary goal of this orchestrated violence is to create a narrative of government failure, suggesting that the current leadership is incapable of maintaining order. By targeting military bases and civilian centers, these sponsors hope to convince the electorate that only a change in power can restore peace. This “scorched earth” approach to winning office is a complete rejection of progressive, value-based political thinking.
The challenge of national security is further compounded by the presence of “insiders” and saboteurs within the system. Former officials or those currently holding positions of trust may use their access to funnel intelligence and resources to terrorist groups. This internal leakage allows terrorists to gain an advantage, making the fight against insurgency an uphill task against an enemy that knows the state’s next move.
It was late General Sani Abacha that posited that if an insurrection lasts longer than 24 hours, the government’s hand is in it or at least its internal failure to root out corruption is likely involved. While it may not always be the highest leaders, the “people in government” often include remnants of past administrations who remain loyal to different political interests. These individuals act as a bridge between the state and the insurgents, facilitating the very violence the state is meant to stop.
To counter this trend, the government must move beyond defensive postures and adopt a strategy that targets the capacity of terrorists, not just their personnel. The military should focus on obliterating the terrorists’ equipment, burning their weapon caches, and bombing their logistical hubs. When these groups are stripped of their guns and transport, they lose the boldness required to attack military installations or helpless communities.
A Yoruba proverb says: “Onilu konife kilu rẹ tu” (“The owner of the city/resident will not wish for his city to be scattered or destroyed), a localized approach to defense should be implemented for long-term success. Security personnel who originate from the affected communities should be posted back to those specific areas more frequently. Because these soldiers and officers know the terrain and have personal stake in the safety of their ancestral lands, they can navigate and secure the region with much greater efficiency than outsiders.
Welfare and motivation are the engines that drive a successful military campaign. The recent approval of increased funds for military hardware and security allowances by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a vital step in the right direction. However, this must be paired with comprehensive health insurance and education packages for the children of frontline personnel up to the age of 20.
When a soldier knows that their family’s hospital bills and school fees are guaranteed, they are far more motivated to fight and, if necessary, die for their country. Providing for the wounded, the fallen, and the retired creates a sense of loyalty that cannot be bought with salary alone. This social safety net is essential for maintaining the high morale required to defeat a relentless enemy.
Rotational readiness is another key tactic the government must implement to ensure efficiency. Security forces should be changed and refreshed from time to time to prevent the “tired and weak” from remaining on the frontlines for too long. Regular rotation ensures that no one “sleeps on duty” and that every soldier is alert, refreshed, and ready to meet the evolving threats of the insurgency.
Furthermore, the government must engage in grassroots orientation and sensitization within the affected communities. Residents must be educated on the dire implications of leaking information to terrorists or acting as saboteurs against their own people, as such betrayals could force them to flee their ancestral lands. By encouraging citizens to report suspicious individuals and provide details for prosecution, the government can close the information gap that terrorists currently exploit.
Looking toward the 2027 elections, history suggests these attacks may only subside once the political contest is over, as seen in previous cycles. However, the nation cannot afford to wait for the natural end of a political season. By implementing these aggressive military, welfare, and intelligence strategies now, the government can dismantle the machinery of sponsored terror and reclaim the peace of the country.
Bamidele Atoyebi is the Convener of BAT Ideological Group, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring and a publisher at Unfiltered and Mining Reporting
