President Bola Tinubu has emerged ahead of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in the Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, securing 24,469 responses against Obi’s 23,402 in the final dataset.

The figures, released after the poll closed on September 7, showed Tinubu with 35.41 per cent of the 69,110 approved responses, while Obi accounted for 33.86 per cent.

Atiku, a former vice-president, placed third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total.

Tinubu’s 1,067-response advantage over Obi translates to a margin of about 1.54 percentage points.

The poll also produced a regional pattern that differed from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, with Tinubu recording the highest responses in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Obi and Atiku each led in eight states.

Tinubu’s strongest gains were recorded in parts of the North. He led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, states won by Atiku in the 2023 election, and also topped the responses in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party won the presidential vote in 2023.

At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu recorded the highest number of responses in the South-West, North-West and North-Central.

He received 10,968 responses in the South-West, representing 43.53 per cent of the zone’s total, while his 4,129 responses in the North-West amounted to 43.10 per cent.

In the North-Central, Tinubu polled 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of participation in the zone.

Obi maintained a strong lead in the South-East, where he recorded 5,796 responses, or 63.97 per cent of the regional total.

He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, representing 41.48 per cent.

Atiku dominated the North-East, recording 1,235 responses, equivalent to 55.46 per cent of participation from the zone.

Despite Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national figures showed a close contest between him and Obi.

Some state-level results were particularly narrow. In Kogi, for example, Tinubu received 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, out of just 110 responses.

In the FCT, Tinubu recorded 5,599 responses, ahead of Obi’s 5,278 and Atiku’s 3,954, giving the president a 321-response lead over Obi.

Tinubu also led Obi in Rivers, with 975 responses against 892, while Atiku received 568.

Among other candidates, Omoyele Sowore recorded 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor six, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu two.

A total of 638 respondents indicated that they did not yet trust any candidate, while 204 were undecided and 122 selected the “Other Candidate” option.

The distribution of responses showed that the national lead did not correspond to dominance across all regions, with Obi maintaining a substantial advantage in the South-East and Atiku leading in the North-East.

The poll also recorded significant geographical concentration, as Lagos and the FCT together accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses.

The final analytical dataset included 56 responses from Nigerians in the diaspora, which were not included in the six domestic geopolitical-zone totals.