Artificial intelligence could increase Nigeria’s and sub-Saharan Africa’s economic output by up to four per cent over the next decade if governments invest in digital infrastructure, strengthen workforce skills and establish effective regulatory frameworks, the International Monetary Fund has said.

The projection was contained in an IMF blog published on Tuesday, drawing from a departmental report titled Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, prepared by Martin Schindler, Nikola Spatafora and Andrew Tiffin of the Fund’s African Department.

According to the IMF, the region stands to gain little from AI under current conditions, estimating that existing levels of preparedness would increase gross domestic product by only 0.2 per cent over the next 10 years.

The Fund, however, said countries that improve access to electricity, broadband connectivity, digital infrastructure and AI-related skills could raise that figure to about four per cent over the same period, translating to nearly half a percentage point in additional annual economic growth.

It noted that stronger AI adoption would be particularly beneficial for Nigeria and other African countries grappling with the challenge of creating jobs for a rapidly growing population.

The report highlighted ongoing AI initiatives across the region, citing pilot programmes in Nigeria where chatbot-based tutoring has improved mathematics learning among students.

It also referenced agricultural trials in Nigeria, Ghana, Rwanda and Uganda, which found that AI-powered digital advisory services, when combined with improved farming inputs, could help farmers increase crop yields.

According to the IMF, agriculture represents one of the continent’s greatest opportunities for AI deployment because of its large workforce and significant productivity challenges.

The Fund said AI tools can provide farmers with timely, low-cost guidance on planting schedules, fertiliser application, pest management and adapting to changing weather conditions.

Drawing parallels with Africa’s rapid adoption of mobile money, the IMF argued that the continent could similarly leapfrog technological barriers through AI if the technology remains accessible, affordable and trusted.

To maximise the benefits of AI, the IMF urged governments to prioritise investment in reliable electricity, affordable internet services, data infrastructure and digital education, stressing that African countries should focus on adopting and adapting existing AI technologies rather than developing frontier models.

The report also called for clear regulatory frameworks covering data governance, consumer protection, cybersecurity, competition and the use of AI in public institutions to build public confidence in the technology.

The IMF warned that without appropriate safeguards, AI could deepen inequality by concentrating opportunities among large businesses, highly skilled workers and urban communities, while also increasing risks related to privacy, misinformation and dependence on foreign technology providers.

It further stressed the need for regional cooperation, noting that many African economies lack the scale to independently build competitive AI ecosystems and would benefit from shared infrastructure, common standards and coordinated regulation.

The Fund concluded that AI should be viewed as a key component of Africa’s long-term economic development strategy, warning that decisions taken over the next decade will determine whether the continent’s expanding workforce benefits from higher productivity or falls further behind the rest of the world.