President Bola Tinubu has been projected to win the 2027 presidential election, with the Renewal Group forecasting victories for the incumbent in 20 states, compared with nine for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and eight for Nigeria Democratic Congress candidate Peter Obi.

The projection was contained in a statement signed by the group’s Convener, Lai Omotola, and released on Tuesday in Abeokuta, Ogun State.

The group, however, clarified that the projection was based on the political situation at the time of its assessment and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of the election outcome.

It attributed Tinubu’s projected advantage partly to what it described as his administration’s efforts to stabilise the economy and reposition the country.

The forecast places all six South-West states—Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti—in Tinubu’s column.

The President was also projected to win Kano, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Sokoto, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, Katsina, Plateau, Benue, Bauchi, Zamfara and Adamawa, although the group identified Adamawa as a potentially close contest between Tinubu and Atiku.

Atiku, the group said, could secure nine states, drawing significant support from parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna as well as states across the North-East and North-West.

It cited Atiku’s extensive political network and experience from previous presidential contests as factors that could strengthen his campaign.

However, the group said the former vice-president’s prospects would depend largely on his ability to extend his support beyond his traditional northern base.

Obi was projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo among the areas expected to favour him.

The group said the projection reflected the support Obi gained during the 2023 presidential election, when he recorded strong performances in several parts of the country.

According to the forecast, Obi’s campaign could focus on political change, economic management, accountability, government spending and efficiency, although expanding his support into new regions would remain a major challenge.

The Renewal Group also warned that the political landscape could change significantly before the 2027 election. It identified inflation, unemployment, insecurity, petrol prices, infrastructure and the rising cost of living as issues that could influence voters.

The group further noted that the candidates’ ability to communicate their policies and achievements, as well as emerging alliances, defections, coalition arrangements and choices of running mates, could alter the current projections.

It said its assessment was based on a scenario in which the presidential election was held under the political conditions prevailing at the time, with the All Progressives Congress retaining the presidency.

The group also acknowledged that religious, ethnic and regional considerations could play a role in voters’ decisions.

For now, its projection puts Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while stressing that the figures could change as the 2027 election approaches.