Recall that Adeleke tried all he could to cross to APC. It’s all on OSUN APC leaders

Now that the winner has been declared, it is time to examine what I discovered from that election. Democracy finally prevailed again, thanks to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Let’s quickly have a flashback to Osun and the issue between Adeleke and APC leaders specifically, Oyetola in Osun State. We all remember that their fight has been ongoing for about six to eight years, from when Oyetola wanted to contest the first time.

Adeleke and Oyetola battled then, and Oyetola was declared the winner, even though Adeleke was claiming that he won that election. Then again, in 2022, the battle was between the duo once more, where Adeleke defeated him and emerged winner. Now, during the general election again, Adeleke won that state for the PDP. He secured three senators and won a Yoruba state for Atiku against Tinubu.

We need to quickly reflect on history, because some might wonder why Osun electorate voted against a fellow Yoruba man, who was supposedly said to be from Iragbiji in Osun State. This is because Osun State voters have been consistent and loyal in their voting patterns. They always vote in the direction of their sitting governor, especially when that sitting governor is performing.

Looking at the record in 2011 when Nuhu Ribadu won, because he was the flagbearer of the party then. Likewise, Aregbesola won Osun for Buhari just as Oyetola won Osun for the APC the second time for Buharii

This pattern was established long before 2023. Anybody who studies how Osun people vote, and who has been following Nigerian politics assiduously, knows that Osun voters are remarkably consistent and loyal.

What does that tell you? Any sitting governor in Osun should be drawn closer. This serves as a vital lesson to the APC at the national level, now that they have lost the vote and lost the governorship to Adeleke once again. They should make sure Adeleke returns to the APC.

The most painful and strategic misstep I discovered from APC leaders in Osun State is that when Adeleke initially won Osun State, he was not really a seasoned politician. If he were a seasoned politician, he would have done everything immediately upon taking power before Oyetola became a minister or before Tinubu was sworn in to handle local government elections and take complete control of the state’s political structure. But he didn’t do that. He didn’t go after Oyetola; he didn’t probe him, and he didn’t do anything hostile. He was simply focused on his routine responsibilities. However, by the time he wanted to conduct local government elections or engage in real political maneuvers, APC leaders had already taken over the entire structure.

In his magnanimity, it was supposed to be the APC that approached him if they genuinely had an interest in winning. But they didn’t do it. Instead, this man came forward with everything he had after realizing it was bad to let another party win Osun against his brother, a fellow Yoruba man, and the identity of Osun State. He came wanting to decamp, but he was frustrated, molested, and assaulted. In fact, all his allies and his senator were asked to decamp ahead of him, which they did. Senator Fadahunsi was one of them, because Adeleke actually won that seat for them.

They didn’t allow him in until he crossed to another party; they actively frustrated him. I have never seen anything like that. That represents a total lack of strategy, and I see them having no viable path to victory. It appeared they were simply not interested in winning that election or returning that state to the APC fold.

When events were unfolding, we witnessed archaic, Neanderthal strategies being deployed by the opposition in an attempt to win these states. Both sides resorted to unnecessary drama, fighting, killings, destruction of billboards, beating each other, and mutual assaults.

I strongly feel that politics in 2026 should be far more sophisticated than what we witnessed in Osun. It degenerated to the point where accounts were frozen, though I do not know who issued that directive. That was deeply unacceptable. I told people in my APC group that APC leaders in Osun had burned all their bridges. They exhausted every weapon they could have reserved for election night or the election period itself, meaning no federal might could possibly work especially with widespread accusations that they were manipulating the State Commissioner of Police at will and overreaching.

We even reached a point where reports emerged that certain individuals, supposedly affiliated with the APC, were destroying state infrastructure simply to demarket Adeleke. That was disgraceful. That is not how politics should be conducted; that is vindictive, archaic, and non-democratic politics.

There are numerous modern strategies that any politician serious about winning can employ, such as adequately empowering the people, focusing heavily on human capital development, prioritizing grassroots and infrastructure development, and facilitating key intervention projects for the community. These are modern strategies. As I have said, financial inducements will soon fail, and dying minutes spending to buy votes will no longer be effective if Nigerian politicians do not adopt modern, constructive strategies to win elections.

When this man attempted to cross over and was frustrated, it was a massive strategic misstep. For instance, if Oyetola wanted a second term and Adeleke expressed a desire to join, the best approach would have been: “I will support you to join us, my brother, if you will support my second term in return.” Adeleke would have had no choice but to agree, since he was the one reaching out and pushing for the alignment.

Instead, the decision was made to bring in a new candidate who would naturally want to serve his own full terms. If you harbour ambitions for a second term, bringing in a new candidate means he will serve his first and second terms, effectively blocking your own second-term prospects for the next eight years. That is an extremely poor strategy all done in the name of being vindictive. I saw no smart political play in that entire approach.

My prediction proved accurate: the people of Osun re-elected their leader because they are consistent, loyal, committed, and dedicated voters. Regardless of the heavy presence of police or the military, Osun voters still turned out in massive numbers nearing close to one million votes or more. This is true democracy in action.

I want to sincerely thank the President, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for consistently distancing himself from this kind of drama. The explicit directive he gave to the EFCC sent a clear message to everyone that nobody can rig on behalf of the ruling party, because the President will never endorse that style of politics. The President is sophisticated, a true leader, mentor, coach, and father figure who has proven himself to be a refined democrat. This is a victory for Nigeria, a victory for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a victory for the people of Osun State, and a win-win for every progressive who understands what this means for our governance. Congratulations to Ademola Adeleke.

You cannot name drop the president to victory better go and give your people good governance. This serves as a stern lesson to other state governors who assume they can hide behind the President’s name to commit atrocities, rig elections, or forge documents. They must realize that the President is a refined democrat who will not be party to such antics. State governors should focus on genuine reconciliation, do their homework thoroughly, and carry out their duties effectively if they want to win rather than relying on last-minute maneuvers. They must execute genuinely people-oriented projects to earn the public’s trust long before election day.

The primary election the internal democracy within the APC that produced the candidate was widely viewed as an imposition. This reflects the core concern shared by many of us who support the APC, and it is the exact warning we keep giving to governors and party leaders: excessive power was concentrated, leading many to enforce improper candidates, pick wrong choices, and push unpopular figures onto the electorate. This is our major fear for 2027 that the APC could lose key seats if corrective measures are not taken. While the presidency remains secure, what becomes of the National Assembly and state governorships? How do we ensure we deliver substantial numbers? Can we sustain our current representation?

This is another vital lesson we must learn from Osun, highlighting why we must urgently go back and mend fences wherever grievances exist.

Bamidele Atoyebi is the Convener of BAT Ideological Group, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring and a publisher at Unfiltered and Mining Reporting and political social worker