ADC Cannot Challenge APC in 2027, Tinubu’s Leadership Attracting Defections, Says Atoyebi
An incurable Optimist and believer in the philosophy and politics of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; convener of BAT Ideological Group and Publisher of Unfiltered Reports believed the 2027 re-election bid of Tinubu will be a walk through the park due to his performance and redirection of the economy among other issues. He spoke to Legit News…excerpts
What are the implications of Israel-U.S. war with Iran and the cost of fuel in Nigeria?
Well, I think I’m one of the privileged persons that can talk on this particular issue that many people will not see as being biased or religiously insensitive. As God will have it today, I’m the only Christian in my family. Ninety-nine percent of my family are still Muslims practicing Islam. As God will have it, I have sent both of my parents to Mecca. My father is even going back to Mecca this year and I will be the one to sponsor him. But these are not the issues.
The main issue is that many Nigerians feel that the U.S.–Israel war is against Muslims. But if the war is against Muslims, I will start with the quote that says: “A weapon in the hands of an unskilled person is dangerous.” This is the practicality of what we are seeing in Iran today.
People are saying the United States has nuclear weapons, Israel has nuclear weapons, so Iran should also have them. But there is a reason the global community is worried about Iran having nuclear weapons. If it were Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates that wanted nuclear weapons, the whole world would not be in fear or trying to stop them. But many advanced countries insist that Iran must not have nuclear weapons. This is because a weapon in the hands of an unskilled person is dangerous.
Now let’s bring it to layman’s terms. Since the war started between Iran, the United States and Israel, Iran has been hitting virtually all their Muslim brothers whom they consider weaker or less extremist than them. Now how can you be fighting your own brothers and sisters in Islam and yet claim that the United States and Israel are fighting against Muslims? How logical is that?
You say it is because they have bases in some of these territories. Iran calls others weak but in reality they are the weak ones. You cannot face the person you claim is your enemy directly. The Yoruba will say: “Ewo ni abenikanja fowo gun gbogbo arale loju.” Meaning that you are fighting somebody else but everybody around must also suffer.
If somebody offends you, why can’t you face the person directly? Why must the entire region suffer?
For instance, since the war began in late February 2026, Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones toward Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Official figures from the UAE show that about 186 ballistic missiles and more than 800 drones have been detected heading toward the country, with most intercepted by air defence systems.
Many of these attacks targeted areas around Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Some fell close to airports and energy facilities, and even Dubai International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the world, had to suspend some operations after attacks and drone strikes caused fires and disruptions.
The ones that are intercepted are fortunate, but some still fall on civilian areas, airports, oil facilities and other infrastructure. Imagine if all of them were not intercepted. Do you know that some of these places would have turned to dust by now?
That is why people are afraid of Iran having nuclear weapons. If they had nuclear weapons, they could fire from their territory and it could reach wherever they target without interception like the conventional missiles we are seeing now.
Now on the aspect of oil that they are asking about, we all know that the oil market is controlled by the global market. Many Nigerians think it is the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that is increasing the price of fuel. But that is not correct.
The price of oil globally is going up because of the war, especially due to the tension around the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through. When Iran threatened to block or disrupt that route, global oil prices surged above 100 dollars per barrel.
Once oil prices rise globally, it affects all countries including Nigeria. It is just like the Corona virus pandemic. When it started in China, it affected the entire world. That is why the world is called a global village.
In social work we call it group work. We eat together, learn together and interact together. Without group relationships we cannot survive. We are social animals and the world is interconnected.
So there is no way something happening in the Middle East will not affect Nigeria. That is why Nigerians should give time for oil prices to stabilize. If the situation continues, I believe the president will also introduce palliatives to cushion the effects of the global oil price increase.
Another issue is that some Nigerian Muslims are celebrating Iran’s attacks thinking it is a religious war. But they don’t understand the implications. Iran is attacking Muslim-majority countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are among the safest places for global investments.
Iran’s intention is to destabilize those regions because Western countries see them as safe investment destinations. But they forget that these countries are peace-loving Muslim societies that attract people from around the world.
When Iran attacks them, it damages not only their economies but also the global image of Islam. Instead of strengthening unity among Muslims, it creates division and instability.
This is why I believe the global Muslim community should come together to condemn these actions.
Attacking your own brothers and sisters just to prove a political point is against the principle of brotherhood and even against the true teachings of Islam.
What is your view on the determination and trial of El-Rufai and the criticism by the opposition?
Well, Nasir Ahmad El‑Rufai is supposed to be an educated person. But sometimes when arrogance clouds your judgment and reasoning, you find yourself in a difficult situation.
There is a saying that he who lives in a glass house should not throw stones. El-Rufai has been in government for years. He served as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory under Olusegun Obasanjo for eight years, and he also served as governor of Kaduna State for eight years. His son is currently a member of the House of Representatives.
But just a few months after leaving power, he began attacking the entire institution of governance. He even said publicly that he was tapping a government security architecture. When you say something like that in a country already battling insecurity, it raises serious national security concerns.
Nigeria is dealing with terrorism and banditry. For someone to claim that he can tap conversations involving the National Security Adviser suggests that sensitive information may be leaking.
When terrorists attack villages shortly after security personnel leave those areas, it raises questions about who might be leaking intelligence.
I don’t know who he thinks he is. Maybe he thinks he is above the law. But even great leaders in Nigerian history faced the law.
Take Obafemi Awolowo for example. He was imprisoned in the First Republic over allegations of plotting to overthrow the government, even though he was a major opposition leader. He was sentenced to 15 years but was later released before the civil war by Yakubu Gowon.
Awolowo did not make statements as serious as what El-Rufai reportedly said. Yet he faced the law. So the law is the law.
Now the opposition is shouting about witch-hunting and persecution. People like Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi are still active in politics. They have not been arrested. So why would El-Rufai’s case suddenly become witch-hunting?
If you walk into a police station and confess to committing a crime, that is self-surrender. When you openly boast about accessing sensitive security communications, you are inviting investigation.
National security takes precedence over individual rights. The constitution guarantees rights, but when national security is threatened, the state must act.
For someone to claim he is tapping the National Security Adviser’s communications suggests he may be working with people who want to destabilise the country. That cannot be tolerated.
Some lawmakers have joined the ADC. Do you see the party becoming stronger ahead of the 2027 elections?
This is simple. People have the freedom of association guaranteed by the constitution. They can join any political party they want.
However, the law also states that a lawmaker cannot simply leave the party that sponsored him or her to office unless there is a crisis in that party or a merger with another party.
Many of those who have defected from the Peoples Democratic Party or the Labour Party argue that there are internal crises in those parties. That gives them a legal basis to move.
But in the case of Enyinnaya Abaribe, the Senate leadership said there is no crisis in the All Progressives Grand Alliance. If there is no crisis and no merger, then the law says the seat can be declared vacant.
The constitution is clear. A member of the Senate or House of Representatives must vacate their seat if they defect to another party unless their original party has split into factions, merged with another party, or is experiencing a serious crisis.
That is the law.
Looking at the numbers, the All Progressives Congress still has overwhelming strength in the National Assembly. As of now, APC controls about 87 seats in the Senate while the ADC has only a handful.
In law we say facts speak for themselves. If I have 87 million and you have nine million, it is obvious who can buy the market.
So I do not see the ADC becoming a major threat.
There are concerns that APC could explode due to mass defections from the opposition. What do you think?
There is nothing like an explosion in the APC.
The party has already held its ward congresses, local government congresses, state congresses and even the national congress recently. If there were serious internal crises, they would have surfaced during those processes.
Defections into the APC are based on attraction. Success attracts people. That is the nature of politics and leadership.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has taken leadership to a level of sophistication that many politicians find attractive.
For example, his administration has addressed issues affecting education by resolving the long-standing disputes with the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU which had led to repeated strikes.
He introduced the student loan programme to help Nigerian students access education. He also approved a new minimum wage of ₦70,000 for workers and implemented welfare improvements for security personnel.
Through advocacy by the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Ideological Group (BAT-IG), there are also initiatives supporting free education for children of fallen or injured security personnel and healthcare support for their families.
These policies are attracting people to the administration and to the APC.
What is your review of the defection of Governors Ahmadu Fintiri and Dauda Lawal and the ambitions of Nuhu Ribadu and Bello Matawalle?
Well, so far, so good. They have defected like many others. But their defection is particularly significant.
For instance, Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri is from Adamawa State, which is also the home state of Atiku Abubakar. Adamawa is supposed to be the stronghold of the opposition.
If the governor from that state is aligning with the APC, it sends a strong political message.
Similarly, Dauda Lawal was previously seen as one of Atiku’s strong allies during the 2023 elections. His political realignment shows that many leaders now believe President Tinubu’s administration provides a smoother environment for governance.
Governors today have greater fiscal stability. Many states are no longer borrowing heavily because federal allocations and financial reforms have improved their revenues.
Naturally, if someone has helped you succeed, you will support that person. That is why many governors and politicians are aligning with the APC.
It shows confidence in the leadership of President Tinubu and the direction of his administration.
Whatever happens politically, it is a win for the APC and a loss for the opposition.
If tomorrow even Atiku decides to join the APC, we will welcome him.
So we pray that God bless the APC, bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria and continue to empower President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to keep delivering for the nation.
