Full Dangote Refinery Output Could Push Naira Below ₦1,000/$ — Otedola
By Momodu Favour
Billionaire businessman and Chairman of Geregu Power Plc, Femi Otedola, has projected that the naira could appreciate to below ₦1,000 against the United States dollar before the end of 2026, as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery ramps up to its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Otedola made the projection on Thursday in a post on X (formerly Twitter), where he congratulated Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, on achieving full operational capacity at the Lagos-based refinery.
According to Otedola, the refinery’s milestone marks a turning point for Nigeria’s energy and foreign exchange landscape, describing the development as “transformational for Nigeria and Africa.”
The naira, which has recorded gains in recent weeks, traded at approximately ₦1,354/$1 at the official foreign exchange market on Thursday, while the parallel market rate hovered between ₦1,430 and ₦1,440/$1 its strongest levels in more than two years, according to market sources.
Otedola noted that with domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of heavy reliance on fuel imports, pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves would ease considerably.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.”
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited local refining capacity, a factor that has contributed to sustained demand for foreign exchange and persistent pressure on the naira.
The Dangote Refinery, currently the largest single-train refinery in the world, is expected to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) daily, in addition to diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.
Analysts say this could significantly reduce import bills, conserve foreign exchange and improve Nigeria’s balance of payments position.
Beyond the current output, Otedola disclosed that Dangote is embarking on a $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will also include plans to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene annually, key raw materials used in plastics and detergent manufacturing.
Industry observers note that the additional petrochemical output could further diversify Nigeria’s export base, reduce dependence on imported industrial inputs and strengthen non-oil revenue streams.
While economists caution that exchange rate stability depends on multiple factors, including monetary policy, capital inflows and fiscal discipline, Otedola’s remarks reflect growing optimism within the private sector about the refinery’s potential macroeconomic impact.
If sustained, improved domestic refining capacity could mark a significant step toward reducing Nigeria’s structural demand for foreign exchange and supporting long-term currency stability.
