Nuclear Powers Face Uncertainty as US-Russia Treaty Expires

The expiration of the New START treaty on US-Russia nuclear arms control has reignited tensions among the world’s leading nuclear powers, raising concerns about a potential new arms race.

With the treaty no longer imposing limits, Washington has called for China’s inclusion in future negotiations, while Moscow is pressing for Britain and France to be involved.

Analysts warn that statements from all sides are largely strategic, designed to gain leverage without making concessions.

China has declined to join nuclear arms limitation talks, maintaining a deliberately vague stance on its capabilities. Beijing currently possesses around 600 nuclear warheads, far fewer than the roughly 1,700 held by the United States and Russia between them.

However, US officials estimate China’s arsenal could rise to 1,000 by 2030 or 1,500 by 2035. Experts warn that China’s limited transparency could lead to miscalculations among global powers.

Unlike the US and Russia, China does not maintain a direct hotline for crisis communication, raising further concerns about coordination in emergencies.

Analysts say Beijing’s reluctance to engage in formal arms talks reflects its ongoing effort to reach parity with the two superpowers before entering negotiations.

Russia has signaled that its participation in future talks hinges on including Britain and France, both nuclear-armed NATO allies of the United States.

Moscow seeks to group their arsenals with the US in negotiations, a proposal rejected by Paris, which objects to being treated as a bargaining chip.

In Washington, former US arms negotiators emphasize the need to establish communication channels with China, including missile launch notifications and dialogue on modernization programs, regardless of formal treaty participation.

Experts stress that understanding China’s intentions is critical to avoiding miscalculations and ensuring global nuclear stability.

The collapse of treaty restrictions marks a turning point in nuclear diplomacy, as the major powers navigate competing interests while facing growing international scrutiny over arms development and transparency.