Tinubu’s Economic Turnaround: From Crisis to Recovery
Tinubu’s Economic Turnaround: From Crisis to Recovery
Despite not yet reaching the three-year mark of his presidency, President Tinubu has already secured a significant track record of governance.
Economists and global financial experts had asserted that “The scale of the economic crisis Mr. Tinubu inherited can hardly be exaggerated”. That was the dire situation when he assumed power. Upon his 2023 inauguration, the Central Bank was burdened by $7 billion in unmet obligations roughly 1.4% of the GDP triggering a massive exit of international investors. The institution’s reputation had been compromised by excessively loose monetary policies, mismanaged foreign exchange reserves, and a doomed attempt to uphold a tiered exchange-rate system. Furthermore, in 2022, the cash-strapped administration drained approximately $10 billion (2.2% of GDP) on a crippling fuel subsidy.
“To rectify these issues, the Tinubu administration swiftly implemented a series of radical structural reforms. This included the abolition of the fuel subsidy and the termination of the multi-tiered dollar-pegged exchange rate, effectively allowing the naira to float.
“In response to the resulting inflationary surge, the Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy. Simultaneously, the government enhanced security in the Niger Delta and introduced various tax incentives to revitalize flagging oil production.
“Nearly three years later, Nigeria’s 230 million citizens particularly the middle class and the vulnerable continue to struggle with the high costs of food and fuel, leading to a rise in poverty. However, Mr. Tinubu’s ‘bitter medicine’ appears to be yielding results. Annual inflation, which peaked at a 30-year high of 34.8% in December 2024, plummeted to 15.2% by December 2025.
“Economic growth is also rebounding, with the IMF projecting a 4.4% expansion for 2026. After the sharp devaluations of 2023, the naira has found stability, and the Central Bank’s foreign reserves have climbed to $46 billion a seven-year high.
“This newfound macroeconomic stability is reviving investor interest. On January 22, the British firm Shell announced plans to finalize a $20 billion offshore oil project by 2027 an asset that had remained dormant for over two decades. Similarly, the American giant Exxon Mobil has pledged $1.5 billion toward deepwater development through 2027.
“Local industry leaders are sharing this optimism. Oil and gas output is on the rise, largely due to domestic firms repairing infrastructure and boosting production in the Niger Delta a region that has seen increased safety under Mr. Tinubu’s security initiatives.
“These developments are expected to provide the government with much-needed fiscal flexibility, especially as the stabilized naira enhances the global competitiveness of non-oil exports, such as cocoa and cashew nuts.”
