IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 upward to 4.4%, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance in key sectors and improving macroeconomic stability.

This marks an increase from earlier forecasts, highlighting growing international confidence in the country’s reform agenda. The IMF’s latest forecast comes amid ongoing economic reforms in Nigeria, including the liberalization of the foreign exchange market and the removal of fuel subsidies, measures credited with stabilizing the economy. Analysts say the improved outlook also reflects better-than-anticipated global conditions and increased investor confidence. Globally, the IMF projects steady growth of 3.3% for 2026, boosted by investment in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, the Fund cautioned that geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers, and potential market disruptions could pose risks to sustained growth. Domestically, the Nigerian government has projected a slightly higher growth rate of 4.68%, based on continued improvements in revenue generation, inflation management, and foreign exchange stability. While the IMF expects inflation to remain elevated at around 18%, local banking analysts anticipate a decline to single-digit levels, underscoring differing perspectives on domestic economic conditions. The upward revision by the IMF signals a positive outlook for investors and policymakers, but experts stress that translating macroeconomic gains into tangible benefits for citizens—such as job creation, increased incomes, and affordable living—remains a critical challenge. As Nigeria moves into a consolidation phase following major economic reforms, the focus will be on maintaining policy consistency, sustaining investor confidence, and mitigating risks that could derail the country’s growth trajectory.