2025 Bye-Elections: A Political Thermometer for 2027

Chief Okoi Obono-Obla

The bye-election held across 12 states on 16 August 2025 served as a litmus test—a concept borrowed from physical and social sciences, where theories are subjected to real-world scrutiny to determine their validity.

In this case, the election was a test to gauge what might unfold in the 2027 general elections. How would the parties fare?

– PDP leads in Oyo
– NNPP leads in Kano
– APGA leads in Anambra
– APC leads in Ogun, Kaduna, Edo, and Jigawa

From the results emerging across constituencies in the 12 states where bye-elections were conducted to fill vacant legislative seats in both the National and State Assemblies, it appears the so-called coalition, ADC, is crumbling. The party is receiving a thorough roasting from the APC, which seems to be consolidating its strength.

As I had earlier noted, the engine of the ADC had already knocked before take-off.

It is now evident that both ADC and the Labour Party, fragmented by internal crises, are mere paper tigers. They lack the cohesion and strategic depth required to cause any meaningful electoral upset in 2027—unless they return to the drawing board and mend the fractures within their ranks.

The chicken has come home to roost. The 2025 bye-election has not only exposed the fault lines within the opposition but also signaled the direction in which the political wind is blowing.

Chief Okoi Obono-Obla