Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on Nigeria’s Long Term Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable, while affirming the ratings at B.

The agency announced the decision on Friday, October 9, saying the change reflects ongoing reform of the country’s policy framework and increased confidence that reform momentum will be sustained despite elections due in early 2027.

According to Fitch, monetary and exchange rate reforms have led to greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster than expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Gross reserves rose to 54.9 billion dollars on September 25, 2026, from 32 billion dollars in April 2024, helped by more formalised foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows and higher export receipts and remittances.

The agency expects reserve cover to reach 6.3 months of current external payments by the end of 2026 and to remain above peers in 2027 and 2028. It also noted improved reserve quality, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reporting net reserves of 34.8 billion dollars at the end of 2025, compared with about 4 billion dollars at the end of 2023.

Fitch forecasts a current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026 and real GDP growth of over 4 percent through 2028, supported by rising external buffers and higher oil production.

The Federal Government has welcomed the decision. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the outlook upgrade validates the reforms of the President Bola Tinubu administration, including removal of fuel subsidy, unification of the exchange rate and new tax laws.

He noted that all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria this year, with S and P Global Ratings upgrading the country to B from B minus in May and Moody’s revising its outlook to Positive in August. FTSE Russell also returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status effective September 21, 2026.

Fitch said Nigeria’s B rating continues to be supported by the size of its economy, a relatively developed and liquid domestic debt market and large oil and gas reserves, but constrained by weak governance indicators, high hydrocarbon dependence, elevated inflation and low government revenue.