It is no news that the cloud of 2027 general elections is about to rain on us, it is becoming increasingly evident that a political gang-up is underway.

This alliance seemingly intends to use the figures of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and former President Goodluck Jonathan as political spoilers to fracture Southern votes and derail President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid. To safeguard its future, the ruling All Progressives Congress must act swiftly, while key political actors must be told the home truth.

First, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde needs to be told plainly that his rumoured presidential ambition is highly premature. He must exercise patience and calculate his political steps more circumspectly. It is worryingly baffling how some politicians become so myopic that even when they command only a tiny fraction of support, perhaps just from their immediate family or a small group they hastily believe it is time to propel themselves onto the national stage.

Governor Makinde must realize that even within his own stronghold of Ibadan and Oyo State, he cannot boast of seamlessly securing 100,000 presidential votes on his own merit. However, even if he commands between 50,000 to 100,000 votes, running for president would directly siphon critical votes away from President Tinubu’s southwestern base.

A divided house cannot stand by itself. You cannot aggressively stand against your own brother from the Southwest. While it remains historically clear that opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar cannot secure the required 25% of votes across 24 states, the real danger lies in the Northern voting bloc. The North has been out of power, and many are disgruntled by President Tinubu’s bold economic policies such as the removal of fuel subsidy and foreign exchange reforms simply because the era of free money is over. Makinde must not play into their hands and become the proverbial “village people” acting against his own region’s presidency.

Furthermore, a closer look at Makinde’s current local governance reveals severe political blunders that diminish his standing. Having observed the situation in Ibadan firsthand over several days, the dissatisfaction among the locals is tangible. He has alienated elderly citizens and families by seizing their ancestral farmlands, converting them into private estates, and telling them to go through the bureaucratic bottleneck of acquiring a Certificate of Ownership if they ever wish to see compensation.

Infrastructure under his watch is rapidly deteriorating. Major roads across Ibadan that have stood for ages are now completely ruined. For instance, a 2-kilometer road just off the Bashorun road network lies completely abandoned and spoiled, despite having been properly tarred in the past. Even in areas like Ashipa, the road was constructed by Ashipa himself and the infrastructure has completely fallen apart due to a lack of proper rehabilitation despite his frequent visit to the area.

What then gives him the confidence that he is the best thing to happen to the Southwest after jollof rice? His political capital is draining off. He has mismanaged critical temporal and spiritual issues, creating unnecessary friction with both the late Alaafin’s institution and the Olubadan of Ibadan land. Economically, records show that his government has ignored local Ibadan and Oyo State contractors, choosing instead to outsource major state contracts to individuals from the South-South and Southeast.

Makinde has abandoned the very people who helped him ascend to power. He no longer visits the houses of the local stakeholders where he used to sit, eat, and play the role of a good boy to gain favour. While it is a known fact that many Nigerian politicians lack permanent loyalty and change wherever power shifts, Makinde must be called to order so he does not play the spoiler game against a fellow Yoruba man. He should patiently wait for his turn when the presidency naturally rotates back to the South, perhaps around 2039. Age is still very much on his side; there is absolutely no need for this reckless rush which may be fraught with political accidents.

Similarly, former President Goodluck Jonathan must be firmly advised and cautioned. Jonathan has stated publicly on several occasions that he is done with politics and has no intention of contesting for the presidency again, a stance his wife has also echoed. It is therefore apparently clear that those attempting to drag him out of political retirement are merely executing a political heist using him as a pawn.

The opposition’s game plan is simple: use Jonathan’s face to scatter and destroy the consolidated Southern votes that President Tinubu currently holds in his bag. As an elder statesman, Jonathan should comfortably enjoy his grace. He is well-loved globally and maintains unprecedented, unhindered access to President Tinubu, having visited him privately at the Presidential Villa multiple times. If Jonathan desires anything for his region or himself, he has the ear of the President, who possesses a large heart and an open arm ready to accommodate past leaders.

Jonathan is arguably the closest past president to the current administration. He knows he is going nowhere politically and should refuse to allow selfish actors to use him as a weapon against the sitting President.

This brings us to the internal state of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The party has an immense bag of internal house-cleaning to do. The BAT ideological group analysis reveals exactly why the APC lost critical votes in certain wards, communities, and local governments during the last cycles.

The truth is that many committed, die-hard party members are deeply unhappy. Aggrieved members from the pre-primary stage were joined by even more offended individuals after the primaries. The party has deeply hurt many of its own committed members. Following the transition into power, the distribution of political appointments has left a sour taste in the mouths of loyalists who feel completely left behind. Worse still, the few individuals who managed to secure these appointments have become unnecessarily arrogant and inaccessible. They do not pick up the calls of ordinary party members, despite the fact that a majority of these appointees never actually worked to secure victory for the party at the polls. This flawed reward system must should be urgently addressed.

The APC must immediately embark on building bridges and initiating aggressive reconciliation. President Tinubu himself is naturally a master of conflict resolution and reconciliation; if he were not the sitting President, he would have single-handedly carried this reconciliation burden on his head just as he successfully did during the Buhari administration. The pressing question now is: who within the party has the political charisma, the wisdom, the knowledge, and the large heart to step up and handle these fragile internal conflicts?

The APC cannot afford to march onto the 2027 battlefield with a fractured house filled with men of bruised ego. This is where the upcoming BAT-Home-Cell initiative must serve as a vital platform for inclusivity and leveling every high ground that wants to divide the house. It must be utilized to give alienated party members a true sense of belonging once again. We should borrow from Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to see that belongingness is highly ranked by humans. We must foster an environment of political orientation and empowerment for our stakeholders. While it is mathematically impossible for every single party member to be given a government appointment, it is entirely possible for everyone to be carried along.

As BAT-IG our slogan is “true progress is about lifting one another up” a core philosophy that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has always taught us and which we firmly believe in. The party must take the upcoming elections with absolute seriousness, treating it as a matter of political life and death.

By bringing everyone to the table, negotiating fair interests, and resolving all pending internal conflicts, the administration can easily present these resolutions to the President for seamless approval. If the APC truly desires to secure a landslide victory with a wide margin in 2027, it must get serious right now and treat internal reconciliation as its topmost priority.

Only then can the party be fully assured of total victory and a grand celebration.

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Bamidele Atoyebi is the Convener of BAT Ideological Group, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring and a publisher at Unfiltered and Mining Reporting