The convener of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Ideological Group (BAT-IG), Bamidele Atoyebi, has warned that banditry in northern Nigeria has evolved into a profit-driven enterprise, describing it as a “modern terror fueled by the pursuit of easy, illicit wealth at any cost,” while calling for urgent, locally driven solutions to curb the crisis.

Atoyebi cited recent reports from Kankia Local Government Area of Katsina State where bandits allegedly issued an ultimatum to three communities, demanding “700 cows and 1,000 sheep” as a form of tax, warning of “total annihilation” if their demands were not met.

He described the development as “a medieval ransom note adapted for the 21st century,” underscoring what he called the growing brazenness of armed groups terrorising rural populations.

“Banditry has evolved into a sophisticated business model that targets the very lifeblood of the community,” Atoyebi stated, noting that beyond kidnappings, the groups now demand protection levies, seize agricultural produce and extort valuables such as motorcycles. According to him, this shift reflects a calculated transition from traditional pastoral livelihoods to criminal profiteering.

Drawing a distinction between ideological insurgent groups and bandits, Atoyebi explained that while extremist factions such as ISWAP are driven by doctrine, “the bandit is motivated by a more primal and devastating driver: the pursuit of easy, illicit wealth.”

He added that the economic incentives tied to kidnapping where victims can fetch ransoms running into tens of millions of naira have made criminality more attractive than cattle rearing.

“There is a bitter pill for the Nigerian public to swallow,” he said, referencing comments by senior security officials that many perpetrators are locals. “These are not foreign invaders; they are citizens who have grown up within the fabric of our society before turning against it.”

Atoyebi further claimed that his personal experiences as a farmer, hunter and butcher in Kwara State exposed him to interactions with Fulani groups in forested areas, leading him to conclude that “with 99 per cent certainty, the perpetrators are often local Fulanis who have become master navigators of the Nigerian terrain.” He emphasised that their deep-rooted familiarity with forests allows them to evade security forces and execute attacks with precision.

“Their greatest tactical advantage is that they have become part of the forest,” he said, likening their mobility to an invisible network that enables them to “strike and vanish before authorities can even mobilise a response.”

He identified longstanding tensions from open grazing and farmland destruction as an initial trigger for conflict, but stressed that modern banditry has moved far beyond such disputes. “While a cow takes years to raise, a human being can be ‘sold’ back to their family in a matter of days for millions,” he said, describing the trend as “the commodification of human suffering.”

To address the crisis, Atoyebi advocated a shift in strategy, urging the government to recruit and formalise local hunters and forest guards who possess intimate knowledge of the terrain. “The Nigerian forest is too vast for an army that doesn’t understand the land,” he argued, adding that these local actors should be treated as professional security personnel with competitive salaries and welfare packages.

He also called for comprehensive support systems, including education and healthcare for families of fallen guards, stressing that “we must treat them as heroes of their fatherland to see hero-level results.”

Additionally, he proposed deploying soldiers closer to their home regions to strengthen commitment and morale. Citing a Yoruba proverb, he said, “the owner of a town will never wish for its destruction,” suggesting that personnel defending their communities would be more invested in securing them.

Additionally, bandits are also being used as cover for illegal mining and to protect even licensed miners who refuse to pay royalties to the government or take responsibility for the communities where they operate.

Atoyebi urged for stronger community collaboration with security agencies through a “see something, say something” approach, warning that failure to act decisively would allow bandits to continue operating with impunity. “By empowering the local population and recognising their role in self-defense, Nigeria can reclaim its forests and restore peace to affected communities,” he said.

Honourable Bamidele Atoyebi is the convener of BAT Ideological Group, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring and a publisher at Unfiltered and Mining Reporting.