Operators in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector have projected possible fuel price relief following increased crude oil deliveries to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

The refinery confirmed that crude supply from NNPC doubled in March, a development industry stakeholders say could improve fuel availability and moderate prices if sustained.

President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, disclosed that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned firm in March, up from an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

He explained that the shipments comprised six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars under the existing crude supply arrangement between both parties.

The increase in supply comes amid global disruptions in oil markets linked to tensions in the Middle East, which have affected crude flows and heightened concerns over fuel availability.

Industry operators said the improved allocation signals a deliberate effort by the government to strengthen domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on imports. However, they stressed that meaningful price relief would depend on the cost of crude supplied to the refinery.

Despite the gains, Dangote noted that the facility is still operating below optimal capacity, requiring about 19 cargoes of crude monthly to function at full scale. He added that the refinery continues to import crude from the United States and other African countries to meet its needs.

The reliance on imports has raised concerns about rising operational costs, with Dangote pointing out that limited access to locally produced crude—particularly from international oil companies—forces the refinery to purchase Nigerian crude at higher prices through intermediaries.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that NNPC has further increased crude allocation for future deliveries, with additional cargoes expected to support domestic fuel production in the coming months.