Electoral Violence is on the Horizon in Kenya 

Electoral Violence is on the Horizon in Kenya

Patrick Gathara warns that Kenya is nearing a dangerous crossroads ahead of the next general election. With 2026 serving as a critical lead-up year, the erosion of global and local restraints is colliding with a historic low in public trust. Gathara argues that Kenyan electoral violence is a “state-generated phenomenon” typically triggered when an incumbent seeks re-election amidst a lack of institutional credibility.

President William Ruto’s upcoming re-election bid creates a high-stakes environment historically prone to friction. The analysis highlights the troubled reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as a major concern. Following legal battles and “shambolic” by-elections in 2025, many Kenyans remain deeply skeptical of the commission’s ability to act as a fair and independent referee.

Modern technology, specifically artificial intelligence, is cited as a new and destabilizing threat to the political landscape. AI-driven disinformation could flood the public square with synthetic content, delegitimizing results before the first vote is even cast. This environment provides the state with a convenient excuse to justify repression and crackdowns under the guise of maintaining order.

International and regional pressures that once restrained the Kenyan elite’s “violent appetites” are also in decline. With neighboring governments in Uganda and Tanzania normalizing the suppression of dissent, there is a growing sense of regional impunity. This decay of external oversight means Kenya must now rely almost entirely on its internal civil society to prevent a slide into chaos.

The author suggests that Kenya’s best hope lies in reviving the powerful 1990s-era coalitions of the church, media, and civil society. While “Gen Z” protesters represent a potent new political force, Gathara warns that time is running out to implement essential reforms. The recommended two-year window for changing election rules has already passed, leaving state institutions vulnerable to political interference.

Ultimately, the piece serves as an urgent call for transparency to protect Kenya’s democratic gains. Reflecting on the repetitive cycle of instability, Gathara provides a sobering summary of the current threat: “With local and global restraints on political violence being hollowed out at the very time when trust in the credibility of the election system is at an all-time low, serious trouble beckons unless urgent steps are taken.”