IMPI Backs 14% Inflation Outlook, Cites Stronger Productivity Gains Under Tinubu Reforms
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has justified its forecast that Nigeria’s inflation rate will ease to 14 per cent by the end of the year, saying the projection is grounded in extensive data analysis of recent economic trends and the effects of President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy think tank explained that the estimate was reached after evaluating key macroeconomic indicators, even though President Tinubu projected a slightly higher inflation rate of 15 per cent in his 2025 budget presentation.
IMPI said its analysts became confident as far back as September that inflationary pressures would continue to ease, following the application of its Predictive Regression analytical model. This confidence led to a revision of its earlier outlook.
In October, the organisation adjusted its year-end inflation forecast to 14 per cent, down from an earlier estimate of 17 per cent. According to IMPI, the initial 17 per cent projection was based on a trend analysis of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), combined with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
“When in September we initially projected a drop in inflation by the end of 2025 to 17 per cent, it was based on a trend analysis of the Purchasing Managers’ Index reports issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria since the beginning of the year in relation to the Consumer Price Index reports of the National Bureau of Statistics,” the statement read.
However, the think tank said newer data pointed to a stronger pattern of productivity growth and price moderation, prompting a downward review of the forecast.
“But we were forced to review our position downwards, barely a month later, in our policy statement 031 issued in October, when we established a stronger pattern of increased productivity and general price reduction with higher intensity beginning from August 2025,” IMPI stated.
The group noted that further analysis using its Predictive Regression model confirmed that a 14 per cent inflation rate was more achievable before year-end.
“So, with the benefit of a new set of data available to us via the Predictive Regression model of statistical analysis, we concluded that a 14 per cent inflation rate was a more realistic figure before the end of the year than the earlier projected 17 per cent,” it said.
IMPI also highlighted what it described as a consistent inverse relationship between PMI growth and inflation. It referenced October 2025 figures showing the CBN Composite PMI rising to 55.4 index points, while headline inflation declined sharply to 16.50 per cent from 18.02 per cent in September, a drop of 1.96 percentage points.
“To put this in context, an increase in PMI reflects a decline in inflation because a PMI hike is suggestive of a higher growth momentum in production and productivity measured across 36 sectors of the economy,” the statement added.
The think tank said the continued easing of inflation, which fell for the eighth consecutive month to 14.45 per cent in November, was therefore unsurprising.
Looking ahead, IMPI expressed confidence that the disinflationary trend could extend into 2026 if the current policy approach is sustained. It stressed that a mix of monetary, fiscal and structural measures would be needed to lock in the gains and ensure broader economic benefits.
The organisation also pointed to planned agricultural initiatives as a potential boost to price stability, noting the federal government’s intention to deploy 2,000 tractors acquired from Belarus across farms nationwide from January.
The tractors are expected to be rolled out under a mechanisation service-provider model aimed at expanding access and increasing cultivated land.
“Indeed, things have changed from the high inflationary environment of 2024 as 2025 winds down. The economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one, with more Nigerians more likely to be wheeled out of poverty as a result of the ongoing disinflation in the economic space,” IMPI stated.
