Investors Jittery as Naira, Stocks Tumble Over US Threat of Military Action in Nigeria 

Nigeria’s currency and equities market suffered sharp declines on Monday, marking a turbulent start to November trading as geopolitical tensions and investor anxiety weighed heavily on market sentiment.

The naira weakened to ₦1,436.34 per dollar at the official market, losing ₦14.61 or 1.03 per cent from its year-high of ₦1,421.73/$, according to Central Bank of Nigeria data.

The parallel market mirrored the fall, with the local currency sliding to ₦1,455 per dollar.

The depreciation followed a weekend of global tension after United States President Donald Trump threatened possible military action against Nigeria over alleged persecution of Christians, a claim that rattled investors and markets.

Trump, writing on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said he had instructed the Department of War to prepare for “possible action” if the violence continued.

He had earlier designated Nigeria as a “country of particular concern” on October 31, 2025, citing worsening insecurity.

The uncertainty triggered a negative reaction at the Nigerian Exchange Limited, where the All-Share Index dropped by 0.25 per cent to close at 153,739.11 points, trimming year-to-date gains to 49.37 per cent. Market capitalisation fell by ₦245.88 billion to ₦97.58 trillion, as selloffs hit key stocks including Aradel (-9.21 per cent) and Access Corp (-3.07 per cent).

Investor sentiment remained fragile, with 38 stocks declining against 19 gainers. Union Dicon (+9.93 per cent) topped the gainers’ chart, while Honeywell (-10.00 per cent) led the losers.

Trading volume and value both dipped sharply by 87.94 per cent and 44.64 per cent, respectively, to 627.5 million units worth ₦25.00 billion.

United Bank for Africa dominated activity, accounting for 21.8 per cent of total volume and 22.2 per cent of total value traded.

Sectoral performance was largely negative, with the Oil & Gas (-3.94 per cent), Commodity (-1.85 per cent), Insurance (-1.48 per cent) and Banking (-0.22 per cent) sectors all recording losses. The Consumer Goods index rose marginally by 0.49 per cent, while the Industrial sector closed flat.

At the bond market, investor appetite for Nigerian Eurobonds weakened as average yields rose by 5 basis points to 7.70 per cent, reflecting bearish sentiment driven by global risk aversion and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to Cowry Assets Management.

Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s dollar bonds were the worst-performing in emerging markets on Monday, with all ten of the poorest performers belonging to Nigeria.

The 2047 notes suffered the steepest fall, shedding 0.6 cents on the dollar to trade at 88.26 cents before trimming losses later in the day.

Commenting on the development, Tilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, described the market reaction as temporary.

“The CFG Advisory is of the opinion that this is a mere blip and closing prices in global markets today reflect erasing earlier losses and the recovery. Nigeria, taken off the Grey List, offers more sustainable pricing,” he said.

However, Dr Musa Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, cautioned that Trump’s remarks could undermine investor confidence.

“The US President’s threat of military intervention in Nigeria is unwarranted, counterproductive, and economically destabilising,” he said.

“Such statements send unsettling signals to investors, heighten risk perception, and undermine confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

While Nigeria must continue to strengthen its internal security architecture and governance, any external engagement should be cooperative, not coercive.”

Yusuf warned that unilateral action could destabilise Nigeria’s economy, threaten regional peace, and worsen humanitarian conditions