El-Rufai Predicts Tinubu Will Finish Third in 2027 Presidential Election

Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has stirred fresh debate over Nigeria’s political future by declaring that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not secure re-election in 2027.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics programme, El-Rufai insisted that his analysis points to the president finishing in third place.

“I have done the maths, I have done the analysis; he cannot—he will, at best, be third,” El-Rufai said, stressing that the 2027 presidential poll may require a run-off.

The former governor argued that even with the advantages of incumbency, Tinubu’s political strength has weakened considerably, making it impossible for him to dominate the next election.

El-Rufai pointed to mounting voter dissatisfaction and harsh economic realities under the current administration as major obstacles to Tinubu’s chances.

According to him, Nigerians are unlikely to overlook the struggles of the past two years when deciding their votes in 2027.

He also dismissed the belief that control over state resources such as the police, military, and the Independent National Electoral Commission would guarantee Tinubu’s success. Drawing a parallel, he reminded the president of the 2015 election, when then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan lost despite having access to the same state machinery.

“He should ask Jonathan how it happened,” El-Rufai remarked.

The outspoken politician’s prediction comes amid growing debate over alliances and strategies ahead of the 2027 race. While El-Rufai did not indicate which candidates he believes are most likely to emerge in the top two, his comments reflect a wider sentiment among critics who argue that Tinubu’s popularity has declined since taking office.

The statement has already triggered mixed reactions within political circles, with supporters of the president dismissing it as speculative, while opposition voices say it reflects the realities on the ground.

As the political landscape gradually shifts towards 2027, El-Rufai’s forecast adds to the uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s next presidential election, highlighting both the volatility of voter sentiment and the challenges facing the ruling party.